By David Beirman

As I write these words the 12 noon, 01 December deadline for Fijian Prime Minister Qarase to adhere to a series of ultimatums from Fiji’s Military head Commodore Bainimirama passed without incident- so far and a new deadline set, 12 noon Monday December 4th. What has not passed is the uncertainty which has plagued Fiji for the past few weeks. The uncertainty, far more than the actuality of a coup or a political resolution makes travellers think twice about travelling to Fiji. Political and security uncertainty fuels media speculation, negative travel advisories, heightened insurance risk assessments and ultimately impacts on a traveller’s decisions to either visit or avoid a country.

Australian, Japanese, New Zealand and American holiday travellers have many choices of Pacific destinations and if Fiji is perceived as risky they have many alternatives. One country’s crisis situation can be another’s gain and Fiji’s neighbouring destinations New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Samoa stand to gain from the uncertainty which currently encompasses Fiji and its troubled neighbouring island state, Tonga.

The prospects for Fiji’s tourism industry are not as bleak as media reports have suggested. Clearly the current uncertainty is poison for Fijian tourism and the longer it lasts, especially the brinksmanship between the military and the government the more ingrained negative perceptions about safety in Fiji become, irrespective of the calm realities on the ground. Unlike Fiji’s previous coups and attempted coups in 1987 and 2000 this chapter of political uncertainty is taking place during Fiji’s tourism off season and if resolved quickly need not be the economic catastrophe some pundits have predicated. However, protracted and unresolved political uncertainty exacerbates doubts in the minds of travellers, Based on observing many crisis scenarios worldwide, the longer a crisis situation lasts, the longer it takes for the destination’s tourism to recover.

Once certainty and stability have been restored to Fijian politics, Fiji’s tourism industry is well prepared to institute an intense recovery marketing campaign. Fiji’s tourism industry leadership has developed some of the world’s most effective crisis and recovery
management strategies and tactics. As Fiji’s most economically vital industry, the island nation’s tourism industry leadership has demonstrated its ability to unify in response to common threats and crises.

During the 1987 coup the Fijian tourism industry leadership established the Tourism Action Group (TAG) which was a small committee of leaders from Fiji’s major tourism sectors representing regional and national tourism boards, airlines, hoteliers, cruising companies, attractions, resorts, tour operators, travel agents and transport providers. By definition TAG is only constituted in Fiji during times of crisis and challenge. TAG has been an effective vehicle in uniting the strategic and tactical direction of post crisis tourism recovery across all sectors of the Fijian tourism industry. It shaped direction for Fiji’s tourism recovery after the 1987 coups, the 2000 coups attempt and has been re-instated in 2006. Although each company and tourism sector is free to market independently, during crisis and recovery there are certain issues in which allied action makes good strategic senses. These issues include the questions of whether discounting or value-adding is the appropriate incentive tactic lure tourists to return to Fiji.

There are co-operative issues to address in dealing with the media and travel agents from key source markets including. familiarisation trips which are intended to ensure participants return to their home countries with a positive message about Fiji. Cooperation in advertising, destination promotion and a common recovery message are major issues which require cooperation.

Ili Matatolu who is the Regional Director if the Fijian Visitors Bureau in Australia is very upbeat about Fiji’s prospects for recovery after the current chapter of uncertainty is resolved. During November 2006 she organised a large number of travel agents and media familiarisation trips which contributed to maintaining the momentum of the Australian tourism to Fiji even as the level of coup speculation began to build. Ili claims that tourism numbers to Fiji from Australia have held up well until the end of 2006 but there is a disturbing downturn in forward bookings from the beginning of 2007. As the period of brinksmanship between the Prime Minister and the Military chief intensified in late November and the beginning of December, Ili and her colleagues around the world decided to suspend media marketing campaigns promoting Fiji until there was a resolution of the political situation.

The Fijian Visitors Bureau is ready to implement a major media campaign virtually from the day there is some clarity in the country’s political situation. Ili Matatolu is confident Fiji’s tourism recovery would be a very rapid one. She has history on her side in making her assertion. The recovery of Fiji’s tourism industry after the abortive coup attempt in 2000 took about two years but the crisis situation lasted in that year almost four months. If the current situation is resolved before the end of December, Fiji’s tourism could be returning to growth y the beginning of the country’s traditional tourism season which begins in May 2007. Both sides of Fiji’s current political conflict claim to be supportive of Fiji’s tourism industry. That being the case the speed of recovery for the industry is dependent on the Prime Minister Qarase and Commodore Bainimirana bringing the uncertainty created by the conflict between them to rapid conclusion.

David Beirman is Director of Struan & Associates Tourism Crisis and Recovery specialists and works in cooperation with eTurbo Communication Contact: davidbeirman@eturbonews.com